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The ledger

Entries

7 entries. Every figure carries its source and the date it was fielded. Anything that is my own operating data says so.

ENTRY 0074 min

Before the Booking

Everything up to the commitment ran on AI. I'd have bet against that.

Going into last year's launch I was sure the AI could take the information work, and unsure it could carry the decision. It carried both, all the way to the booking.

ai and labour
ENTRY 0064 min

The Expansionary Half

Every deflation has financed a category that could not have existed before it. Most AI budgets are aimed at the other half of the wave.

Intelligence is getting cheaper every quarter, and most of the money aimed at that fact is pointed at the wrong half of it.

methodunit economics
ENTRY 0056 min

Sixteen Percent

1,563 firms, 83 countries, and the one variable that predicted adoption

A World Development Report background paper, published at the end of July, went looking at 1,563 companies across 83 countries, all of them drawn from IFC's private-equity and venture portfolio — the kind of firm…

emerging marketstrust economics
ENTRY 0045 min

The Trust Deficit Premium

Why the same software earns more in Mumbai than in Munich

Every business pays something to be believed by a stranger.

trust economicsemerging markets
ENTRY 0035 min

Eighteen Megabytes

An Excel model, and the six-figure line it was hiding

There was a file. It was an Excel model, it was about eighteen megabytes, and it produced the rent and renovation report for a US residential property portfolio worth a couple of hundred million dollars.

unit economics
ENTRY 0026 min

What Would Count as Evidence

Two hundred economists, sixteen Nobel laureates, and no agreed way to measure any of it

In July, more than two hundred economists put their names to a public statement about artificial intelligence. Sixteen of them were Nobel laureates. The chief economists of OpenAI and Anthropic signed it. So did…

unit economicsmeasurement
ENTRY 0015 min

The Constraint Ledger

A method for finding what your business does only because attention used to be expensive

Most AI strategy starts with the wrong question. "Where can we use AI" produces a list of use cases, and a list of use cases produces pilots, and pilots produce the funnel McKinsey reported in August —…

method